January 11, 2010
Driving To The Net
Sabremetrics

by Timo Seppa

Puck Prospectus’ preseason VUKOTA rankings were not overly impressed with the Buffalo Sabres, projecting them in the bottom half of the NHL at 18th overall. On the surface, this made plenty of sense, as the Sabres were, in fact, exactly the 18th best team in 2008-09, just out of the playoffs at 91 points. With the meager additions of D Steve Montador (21 points, plus-17) and F Mike Grier (23 points, plus-8), coupled with the departures of D Jaroslav Spacek (45 points, plus-2) and F Maxim Afinogenov (20 points, minus-7), it’s certainly understandable why VUKOTA ranked Buffalo no higher than last season’s finish.

Looking deeper though, Buffalo had been unfortunate to miss the playoffs in 2008-09, due to a critical injury: the Sabres dropped from sixth to tenth place in the East over the month-plus in which star goaltender Ryan Miller was sidelined with a high ankle sprain. The difference between Miller (.918 save percentage) and backups Patrick Lalime (.902 save percentage during Miller’s absence) and Mikael Tellquist (.890 save percentage during Miller’s absence) was 7 or 8 goals against – the difference between making the postseason and an early summer vacation.

As if to prove that point, Miller has come up huge this season (25-8-3, 2.04 GAA, .935 save percentage); he’s the main reason why the Sabres currently have the fourth best record in the NHL (28-11-5, 61 points). Miller has locked up a spot as Team USA’s number one goaltender with a first half where he has literally been the league’s most valuable player. Measured by Puck Prospectus’ Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) metric, the 29 year old netminder has contributed 24.5 goals to the Sabres’ cause above and beyond what would be expected from a “replacement level alternative” – in other words, an AHL call-up, unsigned free agent or waiver wire pickup. Just how impressive is that? Miikka Kiprusoff ranks second…at 16.4 GVT. In perspective, Miller’s contribution has been 50% more than that of the next best player and double that of all but the 17 best players in the game.

While Miller is the cornerstone of the league’s 3rd best defense (2.32 Goals Against per Game), Buffalo’s offensive-by-committee ranks an NHL-average 15th (2.80 Goals For per Game). To break player contributions down to an individual level, we can look at the Sabres’ conventional stats and GVT to date:

Legend:

OGVT: Offensive GVT for skaters; Goaltending GVT for goalies

DGVT: Defensive GVT

SGVT: Shootout GVT

TGVT: Total GVT

Buffalo Sabres – Goals Versus Threshold

Name	         Pos  GP   G/GAA  A/GA  Pts/SA  +/Sv   OGVT  DGVT  SGVT  TGVT
Ryan Miller	 G    36.2  2.05  74	1141	 0.935 24.4 -0.5   0.7	 24.5
Tyler Myers*	 D    44    6	  20	  26	 9	4.1  3.7   0.0	  7.8
Tim Connolly	 F    44   11	  26	  37	 9	4.7  2.5  -0.2	  6.9
Derek Roy	 F    42   10	  23	  33	 1	4.0  1.6  -0.2	  5.4
Jason Pominville F    44   11	  18	  29	 6	2.6  2.1  -0.2	  4.4
Jochen Hecht	 F    44   10	  11	  21	 7	1.7  2.0   0.5	  4.2
Henrik Tallinder D    44    2	   9	  11	11	0.4  3.6  -0.3	  3.7
Thomas Vanek	 F    39   12	  13	  25	-1	2.1  0.8   0.0	  2.9
Toni Lydman	 D    30    1	   7	   8	 8	0.8  1.6   0.0	  2.4
Mike Grier	 F    35    8	   6	  14	 1	1.3  1.0   0.0	  2.3
Steve Montador	 D    44    2	  10	  12	 1	1.2  0.9   0.0	  2.1
Patrick Kaleta	 F    31    6	   3	   9	 7	1.0  1.1   0.0	  2.1
Drew Stafford	 F    41   11	  11	  22	-1	1.8  0.6  -0.8	  1.7
Paul Gaustad	 F    32    8	   3	  11	 0	0.3  1.0   0.0	  1.3
Clarke MacArthur F    44   11	   9	  20   -10	1.4 -0.1  -0.3	  1.0
Craig Rivet	 D    42    0	  11	  11	-4     -0.1  1.0   0.0	  0.9
Tim Kennedy*	 F    44    5	  11	  16	 0	0.3  0.6  -0.3	  0.7
Patrick Lalime	 G     7.2  2.63  19	 223	 0.915	1.4 -0.1  -0.7	  0.7
Andrej Sekera	 D    28    2	   4	   6	 0	0.1  0.5   0.0	  0.6
Nathan Gerbe*	 F     2    1	   1	   2	 1	0.5  0.1   0.0	  0.6
Tyler Ennis*	 F     1    1	   0	   1	 1	0.3  0.1   0.0	  0.4
Chris Butler	 D    32    0	  13	  13   -12	0.6 -0.2   0.0	  0.4
Nathan Paetsch	 D    10    1	   0	   1	 1	0.1  0.3   0.0	  0.4
Daniel Paille	 F     2    0	   1	   1	 1	0.0  0.1   0.0	  0.1
Matt Ellis	 F    41    2	   4	   6	 3     -0.6  0.6   0.0	  0.1
Mark Mancari*	 F     1    0	   0	   0	 0	0.0  0.0   0.0	  0.0
Jhonas Enroth*	 G     1    4.14   4	  37	 0.892 -0.4 -0.1   0.0	 -0.5
Adam Mair	 F    31    0	   4	   4	 0     -1.2  0.3  -0.3	 -1.1

*Rookie

Statistics through 1/10/2010

Aside from Miller, the Sabres are winning without much star power, unless you count rookie defenseman Tyler Myers, who may just be a budding superstar. While you’ve certainly heard of number one draft pick John Tavares of the New York Islanders (16 G, 13 A, 29 P, minus-7, 3.1 GVT) and are starting to hear more about Matt Duchene of the Avalanche (13 G, 16 A, 29 P, minus-10, 2.8 GVT), Myers (6 G, 20 A, 26 P, plus-9, 7.8 GVT) continues to be my pick to win this season’s Calder Memorial Trophy for Rookie of the Year; currently, the Houston, Texas native leads all rookie skaters in GVT. You have to believe that this is just the beginning of Sabres’ fans love affair with their future captain, whom they already adore: the youngster got the biggest ovation during Saturday’s shootout with Colorado. Seeing the smooth offensive and skating skills of this towering 6’8”, 220 pound prodigy at the young age of 19 years old––and keeping in mind that defensemen usually develop later than forwards––makes me believe that Myers also has multiple Norris Trophies in his future.

Speaking of stars, Buffalo’s best laid plans had ten million dollar man Thomas Vanek as their offensive centerpiece. Unfortunately, Vanek has been a disappointment on offense––aside from the man advantage, his specialty––and is not surprisingly, the Sabres’ worst top six forward on defense. Though perhaps not recognized as such until this season, Buffalo’s best skater has been Tim Connolly, who was maligned in the past for his injury woes. Among the other forwards, the biggest surprise has been the development of tough guy Patrick Kaleta into a decent offensive contributor.

On defense, there’s a yawning chasm between the fine plus-minus and Defensive GVT ratings of Myers (plus-9, 3.7 DGVT), Swedish Olympian Henrik Tallinder (plus-11, 3.6 DGVT) and Finnish Olympian Toni Lydman (plus-8, 1.6 DGVT) and that of Chris Butler (minus-12, -0.2 DGVT), who might want to prepare some resumes for the KHL if his poor play continues. Slovakian Olympian Andrej Sekera (plus-0, 0.5 DGVT) and Sabres’ captain Craig Rivet (minus-4, 1.0 DGVT) fall somewhere in between; Rivet is at least useful for trading knuckle sandwiches with Dan Carcillo.

Aside from the players’ contributions, Buffalo benefits from the consistent presence of former Sabre defenseman Lindy Ruff (70.3 career GVT in 12 NHL seasons), who is climbing up all of the coaching record lists. One such record is in his sights now: on Wednesday, March 3rd, in a home game against the Washington Capitals, Ruff is going to pass the legendary Jack Adams, who sits at 964 games, for third place for the most games coached for one team, tying who did it with Detroit from 1927-28 to 1946-47. On Friday, March 5th, in a home game against the Philadelphia Flyers, Ruff is going to break that 63 year old record.

It may be hard to picture a team without superstar skaters making a deep run into the playoffs, but who’s to say that Buffalo shouldn’t be one of the favorites in the East? If the Sabres do make their first appearance in the Finals since 1998-99, the eventual Western Conference champion shouldn’t be too pleased with avoiding Pittsburgh, Washington and New Jersey: Buffalo was a perfect 7-0 against the Western Conference before dropping an 11 round shootout loss to the Avalanche – and that’s with the West dominating the East in interconference play this season.

About to embark on twelve day, seven game road trip––largely on the West Coast––the Buffalo Sabres face their toughest regular season test. A winning record over that span may signal a team that’s ready to compete for the Stanley Cup.

Timo Seppa runs the statistical hockey site Ice Hockey Metrics. Follow Timo on Twitter at @timoseppa.

Timo Seppa is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Timo by clicking here or click here to see Timo's other articles.