December 24, 2009
Howe and Why
Top-Six Forwards, Part 2

by Robert Vollman

Last week we introduced a way to identify and offensively compare top-6 forwards using even-strength scoring per 60 minutes, took a look at the top forwards so far this season, and examined how well rookies have filled this type of role. This week, in part 2, we're going to explain why certain players are having surprisingly good or bad seasons so far, and then see which teams have the greatest number of forwards scoring at the top-6 level, and what it all means.

Breakthroughs

Wojtek Wolski, Mike Knuble and James Neal made surprise appearances on the list of top ten even-strength scorers per 60 minutes. For Washington's Knuble it's a case of responding extremely well to opportunities playing alongside obscenely talented linemates, but for Wolski and Neal it could either mark a breakthrough season, or at the very least a huge improvement over last year when they really couldn't have been considered legitimate top-6 forwards.

The largest improvement of the season so far is Wayne Simmonds, who is one of this year's "miracle Kings" along with Justin Williams. With the exception of dramatic rebound seasons from Tomas Plekanec and Paul Stastny the rest of the list are checking-line players either making oversized offensive contributions, or perhaps making the transition to becoming a top-6 forward.

Legend:

'08: Even-strength Points per 60 minutes in 2008-09 season

'09: Even-strength Points per 60 minutes in 2009-10 season, as of December 9

Forward         Team        '08 '09 Diff
Wayne Simmonds  Los Angeles 1.0 2.7 +1.7
Mike Knuble     Washington  1.5 3.0 +1.5
Justin Williams Los Angeles 0.9 2.4 +1.5
James Neal      Dallas      1.6 3.0 +1.4
Tomas Plekanec  Montreal    1.4 2.8 +1.4
Wojtek Wolski   Colorado    1.7 3.0 +1.3
Darren Helm     Detroit     0.3 1.6 +1.3
Chris Stewart   Colorado    1.4 2.7 +1.3
Paul Stastny    Colorado    1.5 2.7 +1.2
Vernon Fiddler  Phoenix     0.9 2.1 +1.2
Chris Kelly     Ottawa      1.2 2.4 +1.2

(Minimum 240 even-strength minutes played)

Both Colorado and Los Angeles remind me of the 2006-07 edition of the Buffalo Sabres, when a large collection of players were inexplicably (and briefly) spectacular at generating even-strength offense under Jack Adams winner Lindy Ruff.

Legend:

ESP: Even-strength points per 60 minutes in 2006-07

2006-07 Sabre    ESP
Thomas Vanek     3.5
Daniel Briere    3.4
Maxim Afinogenov 3.3
Jason Pominville 3.0
Derek Roy        2.9
Drew Stafford    2.8
Chris Drury      2.7
Jochen Hecht     2.7

Of course, things didn't last for Buffalo. Since then, Vanek dropped to 2.3, Briere to 1.8, Afinogenov to 1.5, Pominville to 2.2, Drury to 1.8, and Hecht to 1.2. Roy and Stafford held on for one more season, then dropped to 1.9 (Roy) and 1.6 (Stafford). Even if Los Angeles and Colorado's stunning forwards keep their scoring levels up for the duration of this season, come next season they might feel the same splash of cold water that the Sabres once felt.

Disappointments

There are also some well-known top-6 forwards who are not generating offense at the 1.7 level, like Martin Havlat and Pavel Datsyuk. Here is a list of the players who saw the greatest drop in even-strength scoring per 60 minutes. Some of these aren't top-6 forwards, but actually third-liners who temporarily managed to contribute at the higher level last season, like Drew Miller (in very limited playing time) and Steve Ott.

Legend:

'08: Even-strength Points per 60 minutes in 2008-09 season

'09: Even-strength Points per 60 minutes in 2009-10 season, as of December 9

Forward          Team       '08 '09 Diff
Martin Havlat    Minnesota  3.3 0.9 -2.4
David Krejci     Boston     2.9 1.3 -1.6
Ruslan Fedotenko Pittsburgh 2.6 1.0 -1.6
Pavel Datsyuk    Detroit    3.1 1.6 -1.5
Michael Ryder    Boston     2.5 1.0 -1.5
Ryan Callahan    NY Rangers 1.9 0.5 -1.4
Drew Miller      Detroit    1.8 0.4 -1.4
Craig Conroy     Calgary    2.7 1.3 -1.4
Derick Brassard  Columbus   3.2 1.8 -1.4
Steve Ott        Dallas     2.3 1.0 -1.3

You can explain the drop in the stats of some of these players by a change in linemates. Without generous servings of ice-time with elite players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Fedotenko), Jarome Iginla (Conroy), Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (Havlat), and Marian Hossa (Datsyuk), it's understandable for their numbers to come crashing back down to the Earth (and then some). As for Krejci, Ryder, Callahan and Brassard, only time can tell which set of numbers is more indicative of their true talent.

Teams

Naturally you'd expect each team to have 6 top-six forwards, but that's not always the case. Some teams, often out of necessity like the New York Islanders, build their team around a single line, while other high-offense teams like to rotate three scoring lines. Here is a table of how many forwards scoring 1.7 even-strength points per 60 minutes each team has, but remember that not all such players necessarily top-6 forwards: some are just high-scoring checking-line players.

Legend:

Act: Actual number of players currently scoring 1.7 even-strength points or more

Exp: Expected number of players who should be scoring 1.7 even-strength points or more, based on last season's performance

Team        Act Exp
Pittsburgh   9  10
Washington   9   5
Los Angeles  9   4
Dallas       8   6
Atlanta      7   8
Calgary      7   7
Columbus     7   5
Colorado     7   3
Toronto      6   7
Philadelphia 6   6 
New Jersey   6   5 
Montreal     6   3
Florida      5   9
St. Louis    5   7
Carolina     5   5
San Jose     5   5
Buffalo      5   4
Ottawa       5   4
Tampa Bay    5   4
Chicago      4   7
Edmonton     4   7
Minnesota    4   7
Anaheim      4   6
Nashville    4   5
NY Rangers   4   5
Vancouver    4   4
Detroit      3   7
Boston       3   6
Phoenix      3   5
NY Islanders 1   3

Several teams, like the aforementioned Los Angeles Kings and Colorado Avalanche, have more forwards generating offense at the top-6 level than expected. In Washington it could be a case of spreading out their truly elite scorers (Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin) in such a way that it artificially inflates checking line players like Matt Bradley.

In other cases you have teams that have only half the number of forwards generating top-6 offense as expected, like Florida, Chicago, Edmonton, Minnesota, Detroit and Boston. The season is young and there's plenty of time for this situation to change, especially for truly talented offensive teams like Chicago, Detroit and Boston.

The saddest story is probably the New York Islanders, who are getting by with only one regular player generating offense at the top-6 level, Matt Moulson. The rest of their team is staffed by players that would struggle to earn even two minutes of top-6 ice-time on the Pittsburgh Penguins, but hopefully young talent like John Tavares and Kyle Okposo will reverse this trend shortly.

Wrap Up

Forwards who score more than 1.7 even-strength points per 60 minutes are generally the players getting the bulk of the ice-time on the top two lines, and are often called top-6 forwards. The best players in the game can sometimes score twice as much as that, but anyone who scores less is in danger of losing their NHL job, unless they can transition into a checking role.

The Los Angeles Kings and the Colorado Avalanche are two teams with an unexpected wealth of premium offense-generating top-6 forwards, whereas struggling players like Martin Havlat, David Krejci and Pavel Datsyuk are indicative of the failure to generate the expected level of offense in Minnesota, Boston and Detroit.

Having recently used specialized statistics to study who is effectively playing the important roles of stay-at-home defensemen and top-6 forwards, upcoming articles will focus on which statistics can help us identify the top performers in other important roles, such as shutdown players and puck-moving defensemen. See you then!

Robert Vollman is an author of Hockey Prospectus. You can contact Robert by clicking here or click here to see Robert's other articles.