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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 295 (1st on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 267 (4th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 244 (19th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 237 (3rd on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 112 (3rd in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 104 (4th in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: + 51 (3rd Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: + 35 (4th Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 3.29 (3rd on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 2.86 (T-3rd on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: 0.43 (4th Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Western Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 81.6 %
Western Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 51.5 %
Western Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 31.7 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 19.1 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 10.6 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
The Detroit Red Wings finished one game short of winning their 12th Stanley Cup after being defeated by the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 7 of last year's Stanley Cup finals. Things got even worse when Marian Hossa, who is the poster child for postseason failures, departed to the Motor City's archrival Chicago Blackhawks on a 12 year deal. Also gone are the likes of Jiri Hudler, who left for the KHL, as well as Mikael Samuelsson, Ty Conklin and Tomas Kopecky, who also departed for Chicago. Detroit finds itself going into this season looking to replicate last year's goal production with an offense that no longer has Hossa, and hoping that the team goaltending and penalty killing can greatly improve, so that they can remain in the discussion with the other Stanley Cup favorites.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Henrik Zetterberg F 29 75.4 33.4 45.6 79.0 13.4 4.3 0.0 17.7
Pavel Datsyuk F 31 79.0 27.9 53.9 81.8 12.5 4.7 0.1 17.3
Johan Franzen F 30 69.4 29.7 28.9 58.6 9.9 3.4 0.0 13.3
Valtteri Filppula F 25 67.4 16.1 27.8 43.9 5.2 3.1 0.0 8.3
Daniel Cleary F 31 65.3 17.2 23.5 40.7 4.6 3.0 0.0 7.5
Jason Williams F 29 65.3 16.2 24.0 40.2 4.2 1.5 0.0 5.7
Tomas Holmstrom F 36 56.5 13.5 21.1 34.6 3.5 2.1 0.0 5.6
Ville Leino F 26 38.2 8.1 10.4 18.5 1.5 1.3 0.0 2.8
Jeremy Williams F 25 33.9 7.3 7.4 14.7 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.0
Justin Abdelkader F 22 33.1 6.5 7.3 13.8 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.7
Patrick Eaves F 25 57.7 7.1 10.0 17.1 -0.1 1.8 0.0 1.7
Kris Newbury F 27 30.0 4.4 5.5 9.9 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.8
Darren Helm F 22 40.2 6.9 7.1 14.0 -0.2 0.9 0.0 0.7
Kris Draper F 38 56.9 6.3 8.0 14.3 -0.4 1.1 0.0 0.7
Kirk Maltby F 37 52.7 4.2 5.5 9.8 -1.2 0.8 0.0 -0.4
Assistant Captain and first line center Henrik Zetterberg will be one of the two biggest weapons on offense for Detroit this year, though don't expect him to top last year's impressive 0.84 goals per 60 minutes. Playing alongside Pavel Datsyuk, VUKOTA see's the veteran Swede leading the Red Wings in offensive production, though this might not be entirely evident since the other half of the "Euro Twins" is pegged to lead the team in points. If the projections come to fruition, this will be the 29 year old's third best season of his career. However, there's one problem here: time on ice. Hank averaged nearly 22 minutes of ice time, 19:52 to be exact, last year, which put him among the top five skaters in time on ice per game. This year, coach Mike Babcock has already stated that Zetterberg's ice time is likely to be reduced from around 22 minutes per game to 18 minutes per game. If coach Babcock sticks to his word, then the Swedish star will have some difficulty meeting VUKOTA's projections for this upcoming year.
Aside Zetterberg on the first line is one of the best two-way forwards in the game in Pavel Datsyuk. The 5'11" southpaw could be in for another Frank Selke trophy if VUKOTA's projections of a 4.7 Defensive GVT hold true. While VUKOTA believes that the 171st overall selection of the 1998 NHL Entry Draft is in for his worst offensive season in five years, the center with great stick-handling skills has been consistent and healthy throughout his career. There's a strong chance that the Russia native puts up the best all-around numbers on Detroit this year with a GVT slightly above 20. Also, expect his pace of nearly 3 points per 60 minutes of play to continue. He's more than capable of eclipsing last year's 2.91 points per 60 minutes if things break his way. However, even if Datsyuk produces as VUKOTA's projects, he would still be the second best all-around player in 2009-10, so regardless the season looks bright for last year's Lady Byng trophy winner.
The final player on the first line is right winger Tomas Holmstrom. Homer's productivity has been slightly declining over the last five years and there's the possibility that another player takes his spot on the first line at some point during the season. If the 6'0" southpaw, who has promised to be in better shape this season, can avoid the back, knee and hernia injuries that plagued his 2008-09 season, then he'll likely remain alongside Zetterberg and Datsyuk as part of the first unit and play top-line minutes. The 36 year old veteran is also an outstanding screener, which helps to create more opportunities for his other two line counterparts to put the puck in the net. This is another invaluable skill that should prevent coach Babcock from making any serious lineup changes at the top of the roster. The 257th overall selection of the 1994 NHL Entry Draft will most likely round out the first line and is more than capable of beating his VUKOTA games played projection by about 10 games. The days of Homer being one of the top three to five offensive threats on the Red Wings are over though.
Johan Franzen is probably the biggest threat to taking away time from Holmstrom on the first line, but for now The Mule should be expected to be the biggest offensive force on the second line. Coach Babcock said last week that he wanted the 29 year old Swede to take his game to the next level. The Vetlanda born forward already improved his game significantly last season, so it will be a tough task to greatly improve this season. Such increases in productivity usually happen with 1st round talents that are in their early twenties. The 6'3", 200 lbs. second liner should match his VUKOTA projections for this season, making his 2009-10 campaign nearly as productive as his 2008-09 season, except for a few goals and assists.
While coach Babcock continues to juggle the lineup in the preseason, including using lines of Zetterberg, Cleary, and Bertuzzi, and Datsyuk, Franzen, and Holmstrom, Franzen is still likely to play alongside some combination of Cleary, Leino and Filppula on the second line. Anyway that the Red Wings decide to structure their top two lines will still leave them with great combinations of legitimately good top-six forwards who are capable of playing on any team's first line.
The final two lines will involve some combination of Leino, Cleary, Williams, Eaves, Helm, Draper and the recently signed Bertuzzi. Of course, if Eaves, Helm and Draper end up together on the same line, you might be able to wear down opposing lines that are simply trying to keep up on the ice because they don't possess the speed of those three. The other line, which is likely to be the third line, will most likely include Leino, Bertuzzi and Williams.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Nicklas Lidstrom D 39 70.5 10.7 39.0 49.7 8.7 7.1 0.0 15.8
Brian Rafalski D 36 68.3 10.0 37.1 47.1 8.1 6.0 0.0 14.2
Niklas Kronwall D 28 67.6 8.0 32.5 40.5 6.3 5.4 0.0 11.6
Brad Stuart D 30 58.9 4.5 16.3 20.8 1.9 3.4 0.0 5.3
Brett Lebda D 27 58.9 3.8 12.9 16.7 1.5 3.5 0.0 5.0
Jonathan Ericsson D 25 42.3 4.0 10.5 14.5 1.7 2.4 0.0 4.1
Andreas Lilja D 34 57.9 2.0 9.6 11.7 0.2 3.3 0.0 3.5
Derek Meech D 25 43.2 2.0 6.3 8.3 0.2 0.8 0.0 1.0
Doug Janik D 29 38.2 1.1 4.2 5.3 -0.2 1.1 0.0 0.9
The 39 year old captain Nicklas Lidstrom anchors the Red Wings blueline with his offensive and defensive abilities. VUKOTA believes that the veteran defender is in for a down year in 2009-10. If you're going into your eighteenth season in the league and you're still considered a top five defensemen, it should be looked at as a positive rather than a negative. Being able to withstand all of the major injuries and the physical toll hockey can take on a player in your late 30s is a sign that the future hall of famer might be able to endure several more seasons before calling it quits, despite the fact that Lidstrom remains undecided about his future after this upcoming year. As Will Carroll has said, team injuries collectively are the result of luck, but avoiding injuries on an individual basis is a skill. Expect the Swedish defenseman to play five to ten more games than his VUKOTA projections, though he might not be the single best defenseman in the game anymore. He led the team with 24:49 minutes of ice time per game and he's more than capable of replicating those ice time minutes again.
The other blueline defenseman who is likely to pair up with Lidstrom is the formerly undrafted Brian Rafalski. The former New Jersey Devil is likely to have his worst year, point-wise, in some time, according to VUKOTA, but that has more to do with a downturn in assists than it does goals. VUKOTA see's the 5'10" righthander scoring as many goals this year (10) as he did last year, though in fewer games. So it's likely that his scoring rate of 0.22 goals per 60 minutes will increase from his 2008-09 season. The power-play quarterback will likely regress a notch from his last few seasons, but like Lidstrom, he's still one of the better defenseman in the game.
Jonathan Ericsson is the most likely of the remaining defensemen to be teamed up with Lidstrom as part of the first pairing, but that scenario seems unlikely as long as Rafalski stays healthy. Kronwall, who goes unnoticed by many because of Detroits top two defensemen, is the other skater who will likely round out the second pairing along with Ericsson. It's pretty clear that the Red Wings have a significant amount of depth in their defensive pairings between Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, Ericsson, Stuart, Lebda and Lilja. Any combination of defensemen coach Babcock comes up with for his three pairings will be more than adequate in goal prevention.
Goaltending:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Chris Osgood G 37 33.2 2.7 0.0 2.7
Jimmy Howard G 25 14.4 1.0 0.0 1.0
Luckily for Chris Osgood, two of his three championships came as a starting goaltender for the Red Wings, which could help Detroit fans forget about last year's disasterous .887 save percentage. Unfortunately for Ozzie, his numbers won't be any better than that of a replacement level goaltender this year, which could leave his status as the starting netminder vulnerable, being that the Red Wings have Jimmy Howard in the wings.
The goaltender of the future for Detroit, Howard could step in at some point in the season and adequately replace the production of Osgood. While VUKOTA projects the 25 year old to post a GVT of only 1, he's being projected as not successfully overtaking Osgood as the starting goaltender this season. Prorate the 14.4 games played to 33.2, and you have a rookie goalie who produces a 2.31 GVT, which makes both goaltenders comparable as starters. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see what direction coach Babcock chooses if Osgood's goaltending continues to be as bad this year as it was last season.
Special Teams:
Last season, Detroit was 1st in the league on the power-play with a 29.2 GVT and 1st in power-play efficiency with a 25.5 % scoring success rate. The Red Wings penalty killing was a different story, however, as they finished 23rd with a - 8.2 GVT and 25th in penalty killing efficiency with a 78.3 % goal prevention rate. In 2008-09, Brian Rafalski quarterbacked the power-play and that should remain the case this year. Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Holmstrom also figure to get significant time on the ice during the power-play. Coach Babcock is also likely to give Lidstrom and Lilja both signifcant playing time in penalty killing situations again this year. Given that VUKOTA sees Osgood regressing from below replacement level to replacement level this year, the Red Wings penalty killing unit should rebound marginally into the fifteenth to twentieth ranked range.
Conclusion:
Despite the loss of Marian Hossa to Chicago, Detroit still has a very good team. It's tough to forget about what happened to their two game lead in the Stanley Cup finals last year, but this team has a very good shot at winning a Stanley Cup this season. Repeating as Central Division champions will prove difficult, given that they play in the same division as the Chicago Blackhawks. If Jimmy Howard gets the call to start from coach Babcock at some point during the season, and he replicates what Cam Ward accomplished in the 1996 playoffs, but for the remainder of the year, then the Detroit Red Wings will be the team to beat in the race for the Stanley Cup. More likely, this will be a very good team that falls just short of winning the division and just short of the Stanley Cup finals.
Andrew Rothstein is an author of Hockey Prospectus.
You can contact Andrew by clicking here or click here to see Andrew's other articles.
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