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(Note: This series will cover all 30 NHL teams in 30 days, from worst to first, as according to VUKOTA. This is the same material that would have been available in a 2009-10 Puck Prospectus Annual had we published one.)
Offense:
2008-09 Goals For: 217 (23rd on Offense)
2009-2010 Goals For: 239 (T-28th on Offense)*
Defense:
2008-09 Goals Against: 237 (15th on Defense)
2009-10 Goals Against: 250 (T-20th on Defense)*
Points:
2008-09 Point Total: 83 (T-22nd in Points)
2009-10 Point Total: 87 (T-21st in Points)*
Team GVT:
2008-09 Team GVT: - 20 (T-21st Overall)
2009-10 Team GVT: - 11 (T-21st Overall)*
Bayesian Ratings:
2009-10 Offense: 2.92 (18th on Offense)*
2009-10 Defense: 3.05 (25th on Defense)*
2009-10 Total: -0.13 (T-21st Overall)*
Team Contention Status:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 41.6 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 16.9 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 6.5 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 2.4 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.9 %
*2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections (Bayesian Ratings derived from VUKOTA)
Ottawa was a powerhouse team not so long ago, and for some time. Unfortunately they were never able to take advantage of the best seasons they received from Daniel Alfredsson, Wade Redden, Zdeno Chara and several other very talented skaters and take home a Stanley Cup championship. They were perpetually one great goaltender away from being an absolutely dominant force. The one season in which they had Dominik Hasek, an Olympic injury forced him to miss the playoffs, leaving the 113-point team with another bitter playoff defeat.
However, this time around, such a disappointing playoff loss would be a positive result for Ottawa this season. The Senators are a team on their way down without the talent they once had, and much of the talent they do have is aging.
Key Additions:
For better or worse, the Sens lineup is very much the same as last season. The only addition is free-agent winger Alexei Kovalev, who should provide some scoring beyond the big first line. Goaltender Pascal Leclaire is not technically new to the team, having been acquired in March, but hasn't played for Ottawa yet due to injury. He plays a key position and could be a key addition, if he is able to perform.
Forwards:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Jason Spezza F 26 80.0 30.4 43.3 73.7 10.5 3.0 0.0 13.5
Dany Heatley F 28 80.7 33.9 36.7 70.6 10.4 3.1 -0.1 13.4
Daniel Alfredsson F 37 76.2 22.2 40.4 62.6 8.0 3.2 0.0 11.1
Alexei Kovalev F 36 69.1 22.8 35.3 58.1 8.2 2.1 0.0 10.3
Mike Fisher F 29 73.3 14.6 19.7 34.3 1.8 2.5 0.0 4.3
Nick Foligno F 22 68.6 15.7 15.5 31.2 2.1 1.5 -0.1 3.5
Ryan Shannon F 26 45.3 9.8 13.8 23.6 2.3 1.2 0.0 3.5
Chris Kelly F 29 67.6 10.2 12.6 22.8 0.9 1.9 0.0 2.9
Jarkko Ruutu F 34 61.7 6.2 10.8 16.9 0.0 1.7 0.0 1.7
Zack Smith F 21 28.3 5.5 6.8 12.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4
Peter Regin F 23 32.5 5.5 6.7 12.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.4
Jesse Winchester F 26 61.7 4.2 11.8 16.0 -0.1 1.5 0.0 1.4
Ilya Zubov F 22 32.0 5.0 7.4 12.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2
Josh Hennessy F 24 28.1 4.9 6.2 11.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2
Cody Bass F 22 34.3 5.2 6.1 11.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9
Shean Donovan F 34 54.6 4.5 5.3 9.8 -0.6 0.8 0.0 0.1
Chris Neil F 30 54.4 4.9 8.6 13.5 -1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.3
Alfredsson is finally slowing down after years as a top-flight scorer. The veteran forward scored only 24 goals last year, and projects for only 22 in 2009-10. This slowdown should not be all that surprising considering his age of 37 years. Even so, he is expected to contribute an excellent 11.1 GVT to the team this year, and his price tag is still reasonable for that level of production.
The other two-thirds of the top line are young enough that their performances should not drop off. Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza can both be counted on for 70-plus points, and 13-plus GVTs. There's no reason to think that either will slow down, though Heatley is apparently unhappy in Ottawa and that may hinder his play.
Ottawa's other $5 million, high-scoring, late-30s right winger should provide very similar value. Free agent addition Kovalev is good for about one less GVT value on defense, as well as overall, in comparison to Alfredsson. That's about 8% less value, and Kovalev has 8% less of a cap hit as well. He is also in the decline phase of his career but is still capable of offensive brilliance. If Alfredsson's skills slip more than anticipated, Kovalev provides a good option for the first line, which the team would otherwise lack.
The question is, who is going to play with Kovalev on the second line? The Russian's many talents are wasted if he can't be matched with players of some offensive skill. Mike Fisher is the team's only real choice at center, and the Sens lack any real depth at left wing. Ryan Shannon, small but skilled, would be the best fit. If the size of the 26 year old Connecticut native can be overlooked by management and he receives full-time duty on the second line and power-play unit, the 5'9'' right hander could easily surpass 50 points. As it is, VUKOTA pegs him for a 3.5 GVT. He normally plays the right side, but should slide over to fit on the second line without incident.
Another candidate for the position may be Nick Foligno. Management loves his character and drive (not to mention his genes), but the former first rounder lacks the offensive chops to keep up with Kovalev. He would be a much better fit on the third line with reliable checkers Chris Kelly and Jarkko Ruutu. Hopefully management makes the right call here.
The fourth line will be made up of tough-guy Chris Neil, who carries a hefty price tag ($2 million) and a negative projected GVT, and two others from a fairly wide selection of candidates. The 30 year old's brief flirtation with relevance a few years ago seems to be over, though to be fair to the right winger, this likely has as much to do with how he is used than anything else. Fortunately for Neil, he's a fan favorite, and the teams lacks another ritual combatant, so his spot is safe.
The easy answer in filling out the other two spots would be Shean Donovan and Jesse Winchester, who were both regular members of the lineup last year. However, as Ottawa is not likely to be a contending team this year, they should really be using the fourth line to audition young players. Donovan is 34 and well past his peak. The veteran's slot should go to players such as Zack Smith, Peter Regin, Josh Hennessy and Ilya Zubov. Smith and Zubov might be a bit young, so Regin seems like the best option.
On the Draw:
Spezza is slightly above-average on faceoffs, winning about 53% of the time in two of the past three years. The team's two penalty-killing centers, Mike Fisher and Chris Kelly, are average at best, with Fisher being a tiny bit above 50%, and Kelly a tad below. This doesn't do any favors for a team's middling penalty-killing group that finished 17th last year with a - 0.8 GVT. The team's only reliable faceoff man in recent years, Antoine Vermette, plies his trade in Columbus now, which only hurts Ottawa more. Fourth-line hopefuls Jesse Winchester and Peter Regin were both impressive on the draw last year, though in limited opportunities. Cody Bass, another fourth-line possibility, is known as a solid defender but performed very poorly on faceoffs in his limited time in Ottawa. Combined with his 2 points in 30 combined NHL and AHL games, this rather hurts the 22 year old's chances of making the lineup.
Defensemen:
Legend:
OGVT: Offensive GVT
DGVT: Defensive GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP G A Pts OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT
Filip Kuba D 33 70.0 5.4 25.9 31.2 3.5 5.0 0.0 8.5
Chris Campoli D 25 65.5 7.9 20.4 28.3 3.7 2.8 0.0 6.5
Chris Phillips D 31 67.4 4.2 13.9 18.0 1.3 3.3 0.0 4.6
Alexandre Picard D 24 53.2 5.0 12.9 18.0 1.4 2.7 0.0 4.1
Brian Lee D 22 55.1 3.1 11.5 14.6 0.9 2.7 0.0 3.6
Christoph Schubert D 27 54.9 3.3 8.8 12.1 0.8 2.1 0.0 2.8
Anton Volchenkov D 27 60.6 2.0 8.9 10.9 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.7
Matt Carkner D 29 26.6 1.5 5.0 6.5 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.4
Jason Smith D 36 55.1 0.8 4.4 5.2 -1.5 2.4 0.0 0.9
Unless "NHL number-one defenseman" makes you think "Filip Kuba", Ottawa will disappoint you when it comes to big-name blueliners. This takes nothing away from Kuba, who is a very productive player, but the days of Redden and Chara are long gone. Chris Phillips, and to a lesser extent Anton Volchenkov, provide solid, physical defense but don't have the offensive ability to be all-round threats. Though the 31 year old Phillips is paid nearly as much as Kuba, long time Senator's projected value doesn't compare (4.6 GVT against 8.5). The 1995 draftee Kuba provides more value on both offense and defense, though he'll never be mistaken for a goal-scorer.
Chris Campoli can score some goals. The former Islander netted 11 last year, though his shooting percentage was abnormally high at 12.1%, and should have been expected net about seven. His 8-goal projection for the upcoming year is probably a bit low since the southpaw should see some good power-play time in a full season in Ottawa. He's also an absolute bargain, projecting a 6.5 GVT for a cap hit of only $600,000. Campoli may be small, but he's more valuable than the monsters (other than Kuba).
The Sens have a decent seventh defenseman in Christoph Schubert, but after him the depth is a bit thin due to the retirement of veteran Jason Smith. Mattias Karlsson and Matt Carkner will play in Binghamton and are the most likely callups in the event of injury. Karlsson has size and skill, but he's 24 and hasn't sniffed the NHL yet, while Carkner is all muscle and mayhem, but little ability. 19-year-old Eric Karlsson is likely too raw for the NHL this year.
Goaltenders:
Legend:
GGVT: Goaltending GVT
SGVT: Shootout GVT
GVT: Total GVT
2009-2010 VUKOTA Projections
Name P Age GP GGVT SGVT GVT
Brian Elliott G 24 29.6 1.6 -0.1 1.5
Pascal Leclaire G 27 25.9 1.0 -0.3 0.7
The goalie-go-round continues in Ottawa. Seemingly always the team's Achilles heel, the lack of a true NHL starter in the net has often been blamed for the lack of the club's playoff success. Pascal Leclaire, formerly of the Columbus Blue Jackets, is the latest netminder to try to win consistently behind a talented forward unit. Limited to just 12 games last year because of injury, Leclair posted a remarkable .867 save percentage. Remarkable for how low it is, of course. If he can regain some of his 2007-08 form, Ottawa has a chance at being competitive this season, though VUKOTA is not optimistic. Leclaire is projected for a 0.7 GVT in 26 games, all for a $3.8 million cap hit. Of course, VUKOTA is pessimistic with respect to players coming back from an injury. If he's healthy, Leclaire should comfortably exceed his projection.
Of course, Leclaire's big season two years ago looks like a fluke at this point in his career. In 2007-08, the 6'2'' netminder's save percentage was an impressive .919, but for the rest of his NHL career, that figure decreases to a disappointing .899. In 2007-08, the 26 year old recorded nine shutouts in 54 games; he has only one shutout in his 71 other career games. It's not at all clear whether his 2007-08 season is the standard to be expected of him, assuming good health.
Backup Brian Elliott should be solid. The 24 year old Ontario native has posted outstanding numbers in the NHL, including decent numbers in the NHL last year. Elliot is projected for a 1.5 GVT in 30 games this season, which is probably a bit low, but nonetheless reasonable. Overall, the Senators still lack a proven goaltender, someone for whom you can produce a reliable projection.
The Future:
The young forwards fighting for fourth-line spots are fairly good, though none of them stand out as being future stars. In the Ottawa system are some very good defense prospects, who could get a chance in the NHL in the near future. Eric Karlsson and Patrick Wiercioch both provide significant offensive talent, while Jared Cowen is probably the best all-round blueline prospect. The recent Ottawa draftee doesn't score a lot, but isn't an offensive zero either. All three should be patrolling the blueline within the next few years.
What to Expect:
The first line will still score, though not nearly as much as they have in the past. Meanwhile, the second unit should produce a few goals thanks to the arrival of Kovalev, but the depth scoring still won't be there. Add that up, and the offense will likely be subpar. The lack of a star defenseman and a proven goaltender do little to help this team, which won't excel in any area of the ice. One good thing to come from all of this is that the Senators should not expect a disappointing early exit from the playoffs this year. That's because they won't even be in the playoffs, barring miracle work by goaltender Pascal Leclaire. Expect a long season in the capital city for 2009-10. | 
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