July 1, 2009
NHL Entry Draft
Evaluating The Draft Pick Trades From This Weekend

by Richard Pollock

Leading into the Draft, we examined the value of each draft round’s apparent worth. After my colleague Timo Seppa analyzed the blockbuster Chris Pronger trade, it makes sense to analyze the rest of the trades made on draft weekend.

Now, for the purposes of continuity, we will not examine trades involving any players. Instead, we will examine all trades that only included draft picks. How many of those trades were completed, you ask? There were sixteen draft pick only trades to be exact.

So, let’s examine these sixteen deals and see who came out on top.

1. Minnesota traded pick #12 in the 2009 Entry Draft to NY Islanders for picks #16, #77 and #182 in 2009.

• Winner: Minnesota Wild.
• Why: Considering the minimal difference in value between selections 11-20 and 21-30, the Wild made out extremely well in this transaction. Minnesota moved down only four slots and added a 3rd round pick, as well as a fairly valueless 7th round pick. The key is obviously the extra third round selection which is well worth the small move to drop four spots in the first round.

2. Columbus traded picks #16 and #77 in the 2009 Entry Draft to NY Islanders for picks #26, #37, #62 and #92 in 2009.

• Winner: Columbus Blue Jackets.
• Why: Obviously drafting earlier in the first round is advantageous, but when it comes at this cost, it actually isn’t. The Islanders dealt a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, a 3rd round pick and the first pick in the 4th round for a higher 1st round selection and a middle-of-the-pack 3rd round pick. So, once again, considering the difference in value between 16 and 26 isn’t overly significant, NYI gave up two extra picks to select Calvin De Haan.

3. Calgary traded pick #20 in the 2009 Entry Draft to New Jersey for picks #23 and #84 in 2009.

• Winner: Calgary Flames.
• Why: You sensing a theme here? Teams that are receptive to trading down at the Draft generally receive offers that are worth looking at closely. Case in point, Calgary’s deal here with New Jersey. The Flames were able to gain a 3rd round pick by moving down a lowly three spots in the first round.

4. Anaheim traded pick #21 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Columbus for picks #26 and #37 in 2009.

• Winner: Anaheim Ducks.
• Why: When the market was somewhat set above, with the Calgary/New Jersey deal, you have to wonder why the Blue Jackets would give up so much more to move up five spots. Columbus gave up a high 2nd round pick to move up a total of five draft picks, even though the Devils had just given up a low 3rd round pick to move up three spots only a few moments before.

5. Detroit traded pick #29 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Tampa Bay for picks #32 and #75 in 2009.

• Winner: Detroit Red Wings.
• Why: What surprises me is the inconsistency in trading value. It seems teams all value picks very differently. In this case, the Bolts traded up three spots later in the 1st round and it cost them a middle-of-the-pack 3rd round pick. So, Detroit received a better return than did Calgary in its trade with New Jersey. Also, you have to wonder if the player available at 29 (they traded up to draft Carter Ashton) is going to be that much more valuable than the player draft at 32 (the Wings selected Landon Ferraro)? That is unlikely. That argument could go both ways; however, I’d trust the Red Wings’ scouting group over Tampa Bay’s when it comes to that decision.

6. NY Islanders traded pick #56 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Columbus for picks #62 and #92 in 2009.

• Winner: New York Islanders.
• Why: The further you move down the draft board, the less value the difference in picks carry. Here, Columbus traded the first pick in the 4th round to move up six slots in the 2nd round. Once you get past the first 40 or so picks, consensus on draft value is kind of out the window. So, Columbus tossed in a fourth round pick, which still carries value, for very little return.

7. Calgary traded picks #84 and #107 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Los Angeles for pick #74 in 2009.

• Winner: Los Angeles Kings.
• Why: This one is closer because the Flames up ten spots in the 3rd round—a more significant move than the 3-4 spot move up we’ve seen above. That said, they still give L.A. a 3rd and 4th round pick for that privilege—so the Kings make out very well.

8. NY Islanders traded pick #91 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Phoenix for a 3rd-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: New York Islanders.
• Why: The Islanders traded the lowest possible pick in the 3rd round for a pick that can only be of equal or higher value next season. With the team’s base of young players, this is patience worth demonstrating. The fact is, they can’t pick any lower next season.

9. Atlanta traded pick #95 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Los Angeles for picks #117, #120 and #203 in 2009.

• Winner: Atlanta Thrashers.
• Why: Atlanta receives two lower 4th round picks for a high 4th round pick. Picking in the 4th round is an inexact science, so having two shots at those choices, along with a throw-in 7th round pick makes it a worthwhile deal for Atlanta.

10. Los Angeles traded picks #107 and #138 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Florida for Florida’s 3rd-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: Los Angeles Kings.
• Why: Los Angeles trades middle-of-the-pack 4th and 5th round picks for a 3rd round pick next season. Considering the minimal value of the 5th round pick, the value of receiving a 3rd round pick (especially if they want to flip that pick later on—as 3rd round picks were a popular trade chip in this draft) outweighs the 4th and 5th round selections.

11. Nashville traded pick #148 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Tampa Bay for a 5th-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: Tie.
• Why: The Predators trade a late 5th round pick for Tampa Bay’s 5th round pick next year. The difference is negligible.

12. Atlanta traded pick #177 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Chicago for a 5th-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: Atlanta Thrashers.
• Why: Atlanta turns a late 6th round pick into a 5th round pick in next year’s Draft. Granted, the 5th round hasn’t really been a haven for good lower round picks, but it is still a full round advantage.

13. Dallas traded pick #189 in the 2009 Entry Draft to San Jose for San Jose’s 6th-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: San Jose Sharks.
• Why: The Sharks win this deal, but it is hardly significant. They move up one round the following year, but this is nothing either team will lose sleep over.

14. Edmonton traded pick #191 in the 2009 Entry Draft to Ottawa for a 6th-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: Edmonton Oilers.
• Why: See rationale for 13.

15. Nashville traded pick #202 in the 2009 Entry Draft to St. Louis for St. Louis’ 7th-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: No one.
• Why: These draft picks carry little value. Considering it is simply a 7th round pick one year, for one the next, both teams get what they want without giving up much.

16. Nashville traded pick #202 in the 2009 Entry Draft to St. Louis for St. Louis’ 7th-round pick in 2010.

• Winner: No one.
• Why: See rationale for 15.

For all the talk of how highly NHL teams value draft picks, that valuing of picks really seems to go out the window at the Entry Draft. Teams continually toss around picks to move up to a slot to select the player they have targeted, but usually give up a number of valuable draft pick assets in return. Is it generally worth it? Not in this writer’s opinion.

Richard Pollock is an author of Puck Prospectus. You can contact Richard by clicking here or click here to see Richard's other articles. Richard is also Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.