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Who the top ten selections should be at this weekend’s Entry Draft:
1. New York Islanders
The talent available at the top of this draft is unquestionable. So much so that there has been an ongoing debate on Long Island, as to which player the Islanders should select, for some time now. While the fans’ prevailing sentiment is with John Tavares, various media outlets have reported that the Islanders’ man could be Victor Hedman or even Matt Duchene.
Even with all the speculation, expect the Islanders to take John Tavares. Simply, he is expected to be a top sniper for the next 15-plus seasons and is worthy of the hype he’s been receiving. While many scouts believe his biggest flaw is his skating, they don’t believe that will hinder Tavares too much at the next level.
Look at Tavares’s numbers from his four OHL seasons (and as PP’s Iain Fyfe says, he is hard to find a comparable for) and you cannot dispute his goal-scoring talent.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Ontario Hockey League)
2005/06: 65-45-32-77
2006/07: 67-72-62-134
2007/08: 59-40-78-118
2008/09: 56-58-46-104
Some people have voiced concern over his falling point production. Is this a valid concern? Not in my opinion. The fact of the matter is, Tavares probably could have suited up in the NHL last season. He is that skilled and has been playing against older competition for almost his entire hockey career. I mean, the guy scored 215 CHL goals. He is suffering from paralysis by analysis and, at least in this writer’s opinion, it is not warranted.
The selection: John Tavares, C, London (OHL)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
This Entry Draft is actually working out perfectly for the Bolts—so long as the Islanders take a forward (Tavares or Duchene). That is because the Lightning have a gaping hole on defense and Victor Hedman is the man to begin to help this organization change that. He’s big, strong, fast and highly-skilled. In reality, he is the only pick for the Lightning.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Swedish Elite League)
2007/08: 39-2-2-4
2008/09: 43-7-14-21
Those numbers may not blow you out of the water, but considering Hedman played against adults in the highly competitive Swedish Elite League, his numbers are impressive. Remember that Hedman was a boy among men, yet stood out enough to get consistent playing time (something that some of the other Swedish prospects had a problem doing).
Hedman is so perfect for the Lightning that if he goes number one, it is possible that the Lightning would trade down from the number two slot.
The selection: Victor Hedman, D, Modo (SEL)
3. Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche really are in a no-lose situation here. They are going to take one of the remaining top three players—whomever that may be. Worst case scenario, they get to draft Matt Duchene; if that is your worst case scenario, you are in very good shape.
Duchene is a play-making center, sees the ice extremely well, can create for his teammates and for himself. He also carries himself extremely well off the ice, as he was the OHL Scholastic Player of the Year.
Scouts like to see a player improve from year-to-year in the CHL, especially considering the jump in age, maturity and, most of all, on-ice responsibility. If you look at the numbers, Duchene has done just that.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Ontario Hockey League)
2007/08: 64-30-20-50
2008/09: 57-31-48-79
If the Avalanche selects Duchene, Colorado fans can look forward to a decade of Paul Stastny and Duchene up the middle. Believe you me; there will be few center combinations, aside from Malkin and Crosby, which will be better than those two.
The selection: Matt Duchene, C, Brampton (OHL)
4. Atlanta Thrashers
A team like Atlanta, that lacks any kind of organizational depth, is looking for the best available player at number four. With no goaltenders anywhere near the top of the draft and with Kari Lehtonen between the pipes, the Thrashers will select a forward or defenseman at number four; however, it appears likely that Atlanta will select a forward.
Even though the team was in the top ten in NHL scoring last season, Atlanta does not possess a ton of young offensive talent in the system. If the Thrashers want to be successful in securing Ilya Kovalchuk’s services past next season, they are going to need to give him some help.
That is why selecting Evander Kane here makes so much sense. The Vancouver Giants forward is big, mean, tough and skilled. That is a combination none too familiar to Thrashers fans.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Western Hockey League)
2006/07: 8-1-0-1
2007/08: 65-24-17-41
2008/09: 61-48-48-96
Again, we see a great jump between Kane’s second full season in the Western Hockey League and his first. In fact, he doubled his goal total while playing in fewer games than the year before. Add in the fact that he is physical and tough (89 penalty minutes), and you have yourself a complete hockey player.
The selection: Evander Kane, C, Vancouver (WHL)
5. Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are in a different position than some of the teams surrounding them at the Draft. Los Angeles is not that far from competing for a mid-level playoff spot and has an abundance of skilled defensemen in its system--Drew Doughty, Tomas Hickey, Colten Teubert to name a few.
With depth on defense, expect the Kings to select a forward at this weekend’s draft. While Brayden Schenn will be an appealing option to line up behind Anze Kopitar, the Kings should opt for winger Magnus Svensson-Paarjarvi.
Svensson-Paarjavi has speed, size and great playmaking ability. From the people I have spoken to who have seen him play in person; he is going to be a terrific NHL winger. His presence on the ice never goes unnoticed and his skill is unquestionable.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Swedish Elite League)
2008/09: 35-1-2-3
As said above, his number in the Swedish Elite League cannot be taken as a reflection of his talent level. Instead, the fact he played in that league last season should be a reflection of that same talent level.
Selecting Svensson-Paarjarvi would perfectly augment the presence of young scorers Dustin Brown, Alexander Frolov, Anze Kopitar and Oscar Moller.
The selection: Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, LW, Timra (SEL)
6. Phoenix Coyotes
For all the controversy off the ice, the Coyotes actually have a great stable of young players coming through the system. Sure they don’t garner a ton of media attention, but the group of Peter Mueller, Martin Hanzal, Viktor Tikhonov, Kyle Turris and Mikkel Boedker should leave many Coyotes fans very excited.
Considering the team’s depth up front, the Coyotes could use help on defense. Taking into account the lack of a make-or-break young talent on the back-end, adding an impact defenseman in this draft should be the team’s goal.
Luckily for Phoenix, this draft includes a number of talented defensemen especially Jared Cowen.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Western Hockey League)
2006/07: 6-0-2-2
2007/08: 68-4-14-18
2008/09: 48-7-14-21
Sure those numbers will not blow you away, but not to worry. Cowen is a hulking defenseman that lines up at over 6”4, 215 pounds. The most important point about Cowen’s size is that he uses it to his advantage. He uses his long stick and big body to his advantage and plays a great positional game. Adding Cowen to the team’s young offensive core, would make Phoenix a very dangerous team for years to come.
The selection: Jared Cowen, D, Spokane (WHL)
7. Toronto Maple Leafs
Brian Burke has been known to make a splash at the Draft. We all know about his moves to secure Chris Pronger and the Sedin brothers, but does that opportunity exist for Burke this time around? Not likely—although predicting what the Lightning will do is sometimes impossible. That said, if the top three selections end up being the same as we have above, Toronto may very well stay at number seven and select the best player. I know, I know, Leafs fans want a big ticket and want to be able to hype him up immediately, but Burke is not going to overpay in the short term for media coverage at the expense of his long-term building plan (nor should he).
With so many holes throughout the roster, the Leafs can focus on taking a forward or defenseman. That versatility opens up the draft for them a little more than it does for some other teams.
With so much versatility, expect the Leafs to select Brayden Schenn if he is still available at number seven. Now, do not think that the Leafs would select Schenn because of the name on the back of his jersey. That won’t play a big role in Burke’s decision making.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Western Hockey League)
2007/08: 66-28-43-71
2008/09: 70-32-56-88
What will play a big role in his decision making is not only Schenn’s offensive ability, but his all around game. The guy comes from a hockey family and you can tell by the way he plays game-to-game. He’s aggressive, skilled, tough and a leader. Does that not sound like a Brian Burke type player to you?
The selection: Brayden Schenn, C, Brandon (WHL)
8. Dallas Stars
With new GM Joe Nieuwendyk in charge, the Stars are going to be undergoing a bit of a facelift over the next twelve months. Nieuwendyk’s first move was to fire Dave Tippett and hire Marc Crawford. “Crow” as he is known in the hockey industry, is an offensive-minded coach who focuses on an aggressive, puck-pursuit game.
With that new style in mind, the Stars would do well to select Nazem Kadri. With his speed and skill, Kadri would be a perfect fit for the reformed Stars.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Ontario Hockey League)
2006/07: 62-7-15-22
2007/08: 68-25-40-65
2008/09: 56-25-53-78
With Mike Modano slowing down and Mike Ribiero lacking great foot-speed, Kadri’s combination of speed and skill will add a much-needed element up-the-middle to the Stars’ game.
The selection: Nazem Kadri, C, London (OHL)
9. Ottawa Senators
Things are not looking so pretty in the Canadian capital right now. Dany Heatley wants out and Bryan Murray has publicly stated his desire to trade the sniper prior to July 1st. With Heatley on the move and the team’s offensive depth already a question before Heatley’s demand, expect the Senators to focus on adding some offensive talent at this year’s Entry Draft.
While the options are aplenty, the rising stock of Scott Glennie would be a nice fit for the Senators.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Western Hockey League)
2007/08: 61-26-32-58
2008/09: 55-28-42-70
Some know Glennie only as Brayden Schenn’s teammate. However, Glennie is more than just Schenn’s teammate. He has a non-stop motor, can skate, can shoot and does not back down. The people I’ve spoken to believe Glennie is the real deal and is just finally receiving some of the praise he deserves.
Considering the dearth of offensive talent in Ottawa, the Senators should make a move for the hard-working and talented Glennie.
The selection: Scott Glennie, C, Brandon (WHL)
10. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have not been shy about their intentions to address the team’s need up-front for more size (and skill too). That leads some to believe the team could be considering Zack Kassian. While that option is appealing, I expect the Oilers to look to move a defenseman during the Draft, possibly for that aforementioned size and skill at forward.
If the Oilers are successful in moving one of the team’s many capable NHL defensemen, the Oilers could very well use their number 10 selection on offensive defenseman Ryan Ellis.
Key: Games Played/Goals/Assists/Points (Ontario Hockey League)
2007/08: 63-15-48-63
2008/09: 57-22-67-89
Ellis is really that good offensively. Look at his numbers and remember that he is a defenseman. Yes, that is right; a defenseman that led the OHL in assists. As my colleague Iain Fyfe has said before, Ellis deserves more respect than he has been receiving.
While some compare him to Brian Rafalski because he is a right-handed shooting, puck-moving defenseman, others say he is more physical and likes to stir it up a bit more. Either way, Rafalski is certainly not a comparison to scoff at.
Even though some Oilers fans may feel the team needs address its offensive problem with this pick, Ellis may have too much talent to pass up on.
The selection: Ryan Ellis, D, Windsor (OHL)
Richard Pollock is an author of Puck Prospectus. You can contact Richard by clicking here or click here to see Richard's other articles. Richard is also Editor for the hockey website Illegal Curve.
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